基于ECMWF和WRF的嘉陵江流域面雨量预报精度评估

将降雨数值预报产品运用到水文预报中已经逐渐成为提高洪水作业预报的预见期的重要手段。为充分了解ECMWF(European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts)和WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model)2种数值天气预报产品对嘉陵江研究区面雨量预报的预报精度和误差分布,且为增强洪水预报精度的稳健性提供科学支持,采用TS评分、空报率、漏报率、正确率等指标,对嘉陵江地区7个气象分区内的2016年汛期面雨量预报结果进行了检验,分析了不同分区内各检验指标与预报时效的关系。结果表明:ECMWF数值预报产品和WRF数值预报产品均可用于该地区晴雨预报,且2种产品的预报精度随降水等级的增大呈增大趋势,随预报时效的增加呈减小趋势。综合而言,ECMWF数值预报产品对嘉陵江研究区的预报效果更好。     

Sex ratio and reproduction of invasive red devil, (Amphilophus labiatus: Cichlidae) in Lake Sentani,Indonesia

The Red Devil Cichlid Amphilophus labiatus (Günther 1864), native to Lake Nicaragua and Lake Managua in Central America, is widely cultivated as an attractive, yet aggressive, aquarium fish that has been introduced to several freshwater locations around the world. It was recently introduced into Lake Sentani in Indonesian New Guinea, a naturally rich aquatic habitat home exhibiting a diverse fauna with high endemism. To better understand the invasive potential and impacts of A. labiatus, the present study was undertaken to describe the sex ratio and reproductive potential of A. labiatus in Lake Sentani through determination of its gonad maturation stages, gonado‐somatic index and fecundity. The fish were collected using floating gill nets at six locations around the lake between June and August 2019. Sex identification, gonads type, gonad stage and weight, fecundity were observed in the laboratory. Of the total 542 of A. labiatus collected during the survey, 345 individuals were sampled for sex ratio and reproduction. The overall male:female ratio was skewed towards males in a ratio of 3.28:1. The males were generally found to be in the gonad maturation stage I, while the females were commonly found in gonad maturation stages III and IV for all sampling locations during the study period. The highest male mean GSI value was found for the Yakonde site (0.24 ± 0.21) and at the Ayapo site (1.11 ± 1.01) for the females, with a fecundity of 191–2,720 eggs. The fish have spread to most parts of the lake, being conditioned to potentially spawn at any location, thereby providing an explanation for the observed rapid increase of the A. labiatus population over the last ten years. The results of the present study suggest a high invasive potential for this species in this and other similar lake habitats, warning that their careful management should be undertaken to restrict their further spread in Indonesia and elsewhere.     

银额盆地路井凹陷下白垩统巴一段储层特征及其影响因素

近年来,银额盆地路井凹陷的油气勘探取得了一些成果,但其勘探程度低且地质条件复杂,储层特征及其影响因素尚不明确。本文从储层岩石学特征着手,运用常规物性分析、岩石薄片及铸体薄片等资料分析了储层特征,从沉积相、压实作用、岩屑组分和粒度等方面探讨了储层的影响因素。巴一段储层岩性主要为岩屑砂岩和长石岩屑砂岩,砂岩多呈粗粒砂状结构,磨圆度差到中等,分选中到差。胶结类型主要为孔隙式胶结,成分成熟度较低。平均孔隙度5.2%,平均渗透率0.58×10^-3μm^2。储层孔隙类型主要有粒间孔和粒间溶孔,次生孔隙构成较主要的储集空间。储集层主要分布在扇三角洲前缘。储层物性随着深度的增加而变差,但局部存在高渗带,可能与酸溶作用有关,随着勘探的进一步深入,需要进一步研究。     

南阳盆地北缘更新世以来的构造演化特征

南阳盆地是白垩纪晚期以来持续发育的断陷盆地，通过对南阳盆地钻孔及河流阶地的研究，并结合ESR测年方法，对南阳盆地北缘更新世以来的构造演化特征进行了分析。结果表明：研究区冲洪积层主要由全新统、上更新统、中更新统组成，分别构成了湍河的Ⅰ级、Ⅱ级、Ⅲ级阶地；中更新统以来，研究区垂直升降运动较为明显，湍河下蚀作用十分强烈，多级阶地的结构体现了更新世中晚期以来的总体持续下蚀过程，且时间和空间上表现出不均衡性，其下蚀速率由慢至快又逐渐减缓。     

3D-modelling of Lake Kivu: Horizontal and vertical flow and temperature structure under spatially variable atmospheric forcing

With the increasing extraction of methane from Lake Kivu, there is a growing need to evaluate the effect of such operations on the lake’s permanent density stratification. This requires understanding of the spatial structure and variability of flow velocities and constituents in Lake Kivu. In this study, we develop a 3D hydrodynamic model of Lake Kivu, set-up within DELFT3D at a 750 m grid spacing and forced by COSMO-CLM atmosphere model results at a 2.8 km grid spacing. Validation shows that the model correctly reproduces the generation and breakdown of the temperature stratification in the upper mixed layer and predicts flow velocity magnitudes and directions similar to measurements both at the surface and at greater depth. Analysis of currents reveals a surface current pattern with two clockwise circulations, one around the whole lake and a smaller one in the northern part, with velocities around 0.1 m/s. This pattern is consistently present over an (ensemble-)averaged day, both in the wet and in the dry season, while day-by-day variations are large. Time-averaged deep currents are found to be a few mm/s at maximum. However, the variations can be substantial, with standard deviations up to 2 cm/s for the currents at 220 m depth, attributed to internal seiches. The temperature stratification, present during the entire wet season, is found to first break down in the dry season in the southern part of the lake. This is explained by the spatial differences in the wind stress and the evaporation heat fluxes during the dry season.     

The distribution,density, and biomass of the zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) on natural substrates in Lake Winnipeg 2017–2019

The distribution, density, biomass and size-structure of the zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) population in Lake Winnipeg were examined between 2017 and 2019. Zebra mussels have colonized most of the available hard substrate in the south basin and Narrows region, but colonization of the north basin remains low at present, even on suitable substrate. Numerical densities and shell free biomass peaked at 5530 ± 953 m^?2 and 64.7 ± 57.9 g shell free dry mass m^?2 respectively. The distribution appeared to be strongly limited by substrate type and availability, with further limitations on the distribution imposed by physical disturbance in shallow waters and unsuitable substrate in deeper areas of the lake. Zebra mussels <1 year old dominated the populations, and individuals >18 mm were exceedingly rare. Poor recruitment was observed at sites along the eastern side of the south basin compared to elsewhere in the lake. The proximate causes of these differences in colonization success and recruitment are not clear, but may be in part due to heterogeneous patterns of key physico-chemical environmental conditions such as calcium concentrations required for successful development of juvenile mussels and colder water temperatures in the north basin. This study provides a baseline of information on which to track further expansion of zebra mussels in Lake Winnipeg and assist efforts to develop an understanding of how zebra mussels may affect the ecology of Lake Winnipeg.     

Mercury concentrations in commercial fish species from Lake Winnipeg, 1971–2019

Concentrations of total mercury (THg) in the axial musculature of northern pike (Esox lucius), walleye (Sander vitreus), lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), and sauger (Sander canadensis) were analyzed from several regions of Lake Winnipeg and three main inflows, focusing on Mossy Bay in the North Basin of the lake. Length-standardized means (standard means) indicated THg concentrations in pike of 550 mm fork length (0.44 ppm) and walleye measuring 400 mm (0.38 ppm) from Mossy Bay were highest in 1971 and declined to 0.13 and 0.22 ppm, respectively, by 1974. Standard means of both these species have been similar since 2010 (walleye; approximately 0.11 ppm) and 2013 (pike; approximately 0.17 ppm), except for a significant increase to 0.15 ppm in walleye in 2019, potentially related to concurrent changes in trophic interactions with invasive fish and invertebrate species. Standard means of 300 mm long sauger (0.23–0.29 ppm) did not decline significantly between 1971 and 1974, and those of 350 mm long whitefish ranged from 0.006 to 0.028 ppm from 1983 to 2016 with no clear temporal trend. In concert with data from other areas of Lake Winnipeg and the three inflows for 2000–2019, these results indicate higher contemporary concentrations in the South Basin of the lake. This latitudinal gradient in fish THg is assumed to be a result of continuous mercury inputs from the Red and the Winnipeg River, whereas a former point source of industrial mercury in the Saskatchewan River is no longer relevant. According to human consumption limits based on tolerable daily intake calculations and current THg concentrations of fish from Mossy Bay, substantial quantities of whitefish, pike, and walleye fish can be safely eaten.     

Monitoring water level and volume changes of lakes and reservoirs in the Yellow River Basin using ICESat-2 laser altimetry and Google Earth Engine

Monitoring the water level and volume changes of lakes and reservoirs is essential for deepening our understanding of the temporal and spatial dynamics of water resources in the Yellow River Basin, with a view to better utilizing and managing water resources. In recent years, there have been many studies on monitoring water level and volume changes in inland waters, but they were mainly focused on radar altimetry and the full waveform LiDAR ICESat, which was retired in 2010. Few studies based on the latest photon-counting LiDAR ICESat-2 have been reported. Compared with previous sensors, ICESat-2 has great advantages in footprint size, transmitting frequency, pulse number, etc, but its performance in monitoring water level and volume changes in inland waters has not been fully explored. Here we investigated the spatial distribution of water level and volume changes of 11 lakes and 8 reservoirs in the Yellow River Basin based on ICESat-2 and Google Earth Engine, and analyzed the factors affecting the measurement uncertainties. In-situ validation of lake level in Lake Qinghai indicates that the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of our result is only 7 cm after the reference coordinate system conversion. We found that the water level trend of the natural lake shows significant seasonal variations, while the water level trend of the reservoir shows a sharp rise and fall. In addition, precipitation plays a decisive role in the changes in natural lake levels and indirectly affects the artificial control of reservoirs’ water discharges. The uncertainty of water volume change monitoring is mainly affected by water level measurement uncertainty for lakes, while for reservoirs, that is affected by the combination of water level and area measurement uncertainties. The stability of lake level measurement increases with the increase in photon counts. The introduction of ICESat-2 ATL13 Significant Wave Height might lead larger standard deviation in water level measurement. According to the law of propagation of uncertainty, the uncertainty of the water volume change estimation by the combination of ICESat-2 and GEE is less than 9 %.